tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post1346477435695848469..comments2024-02-22T19:45:29.872-05:00Comments on Sources And Methods: RFI: Should Intelligence Analysis Be More Like Competitive Diving?Kristan J. Wheatonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566135545863154089noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-72597452226095340792011-10-22T08:01:43.915-04:002011-10-22T08:01:43.915-04:00Take a look at IARPA BAA-11-11, Open Source Indica...Take a look at IARPA BAA-11-11, Open Source Indicators. They lay out a methodology for scoring automatically-generated forecasts of "interesting" events. Might be a useful input to your process.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-78269713028096780462011-10-20T21:22:11.328-04:002011-10-20T21:22:11.328-04:00"Will Moammar Ghaddafi be President of Libya ..."Will Moammar Ghaddafi be President of Libya after 31 DEC 2011?"<br /><br />A resolvable question that's been resolved well before the date in question. :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-74652697536368131112011-10-20T11:50:25.064-04:002011-10-20T11:50:25.064-04:00To all,
Thanks for the input! If you have any ot...To all,<br /><br />Thanks for the input! If you have any other ideas or leads, please leave a comment.<br /><br />KrisKristan J. Wheatonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02566135545863154089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-43019071625403308462011-10-20T03:49:06.274-04:002011-10-20T03:49:06.274-04:00Err sorry "An important weight..." what ...Err sorry "An important weight..." what can I say it's late.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-50503833115433438322011-10-20T03:47:42.325-04:002011-10-20T03:47:42.325-04:00An important wait is "distance from target&qu...An important wait is "distance from target". Recently law enforcement had a standoff with a woman who had access to multiple firearms. Her husband was interviewed by the intelligence detective to try and figure out how dangerous she was to officers. The question was: "On a scale of one to ten how likely is your wife to hurt police officers" the husband responded "Two". The intelligence officer then returned to the incident commander with the information, saying "If she is a two she is a ten"<br />The point of this is, the evaluation model needs to start with "distance from target" - The decision maker that wants to know "Is the Muslim Brotherhood going to be in a position of power in three years?" Has a much more clinical approach and time to react to information than the field commander that asks "What is the probability that individuals have booby trapped the facility we are going to enter?"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-79882090609435803012011-10-18T16:33:16.876-04:002011-10-18T16:33:16.876-04:00Reviewing the accuracy of intelligence estimates--...Reviewing the accuracy of intelligence estimates--like the infamous "Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons" NIE--should lead to a meaningful quantitative measure of analytical output. That might not be "difficulty," but it may be more useful than difficulty. <br /><br />Something like "Accurate predictions/Total Predictions x 100" would give you an accuracy average. <br /><br />Kent ClizbeKent LClizbehttp://www.kentclizbe.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-35589151724974677092011-10-18T14:21:12.793-04:002011-10-18T14:21:12.793-04:00I spent a great of time in the 1990s seeking to an...I spent a great of time in the 1990s seeking to answer my commander's questions regarding "how we measure the value of intelligence." I recall wading through the various factors common to the doctrine and literature -- timely, accurate, complete -- before settling on the conclusion that the key element in the evaluation model was the "quality of the question" and that the decisionmaker asking the question was our final standard for measure. Good luck on your efforts to divine the taxonomy of the question -- it's there. Senior decisionmakers know how to ask the right questions with the right variables weighted and in place. Check out cognitive psychologists Klein & Asscociates' work regarding intuition in decisionmaking. I think you might discover the secret to asking good questions rests with our most successful decisionmakers and the mental algorithms they employ in shaping their requests.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com