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Saturday, February 28, 2009
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Evaluating Intelligence (Final Version With Abstract)
Abstract:
Evaluating intelligence is a difficult task. This paper examines why it is so difficult, suggests a new model for thinking about the process of evaluating intelligence and tests that model against several documents prepared by the US National Intelligence Council in the run-up to the Iraq War.
PDF Version (Pre-pub Complete, ISA 2009)
HTML Version:
Part 1 -- Introduction
Part 2 -- A Tale Of Two Weathermen
Part 3 -- A Model For Evaluating Intelligence
Part 4 -- The Problem With Evaluating Intelligence Products
Part 5 -- The Problem With Evaluating The Intelligence Process
Part 6 -- The Decisionmaker's Perspective
Part 7 -- The Iraq WMD Estimate And Other Iraq Pre-War Assessments
Part 8 -- Batting Averages
Part 9 -- Final Thoughts
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Evaluating intelligence is a difficult task. This paper examines why it is so difficult, suggests a new model for thinking about the process of evaluating intelligence and tests that model against several documents prepared by the US National Intelligence Council in the run-up to the Iraq War.
PDF Version (Pre-pub Complete, ISA 2009)
HTML Version:
Part 1 -- Introduction
Part 2 -- A Tale Of Two Weathermen
Part 3 -- A Model For Evaluating Intelligence
Part 4 -- The Problem With Evaluating Intelligence Products
Part 5 -- The Problem With Evaluating The Intelligence Process
Part 6 -- The Decisionmaker's Perspective
Part 7 -- The Iraq WMD Estimate And Other Iraq Pre-War Assessments
Part 8 -- Batting Averages
Part 9 -- Final Thoughts
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
TimeSpace News Exploration Tool (Washington Post via Information Aesthetics)
Information Aesthetics points to a useful tool for tracking and accessing the news available through the Washington Post. Called TimeSpace, it is an interactive Google map with a variety of tools that allow the reader to explore the news at different times of day, from a geographic perspective, with respect to certain keywords or all of the above.
Free Intel Studies Book! (MCIIS Press)
We have just published a new book, Walking Through The Halls Of Intelligence, and, in keeping with our philosophy, we have made a PDF version free to download.The book summarizes the results of 12 recent graduate theses and covers topics such as:
- A Predictive Model For Clandestine Nuclear Programs
- Is China Stable?
- Accountability: Process And Outcome Systems For Intelligence Analysts
- Personality Types Of Intelligence Analysts
You can also buy a copy of the book (it is a great coffee table book -- with hard cover and dust jacket). All of the profits from the sale of the hard copy go to support graduate level research here at Mercyhurst.
The book was originally a class project in my graduate level class in Intelligence Communications last year. I wanted students to become familiar with the thesis process and the thesis results of previous graduate students (much of which covers topics not previously or, at least, not widely covered in the intelligence studies literature). I also wanted the students to produce an integrated document and to make that document readable.
As a result, I had them write a book...
Their guidance for the individual chapters was to mimic the feature writing style from good news and science magazines (such as Newsweek and New Scientist) and to compile all of the articles into a book length document.
In addition to reading the theses, contacting the original authors for more info, speaking with the thesis advisors and others regarding the importance of the work, they also had to make a variety of group decisions such as settling on a common format and make numerous production decisions (such as cover artwork and layout).
In the end, the book was good enough that we decided to publish it using the same model that we used with the Analyst's Style Manual (still available for both free download and purchase).
In the end, the book was good enough that we decided to publish it using the same model that we used with the Analyst's Style Manual (still available for both free download and purchase).
It is licensed under a Creative Commons license which means you can download it, share it, use it in classes -- whatever.
While you are there, you might also want to check out the new Mercyhurst College Institute Of Intelligence Studies website. We are still adding content but the look and feel are entirely different.
While you are there, you might also want to check out the new Mercyhurst College Institute Of Intelligence Studies website. We are still adding content but the look and feel are entirely different.
We have also done a better job of integrating the MCIIS website with the college's main site (for example, if you know a high school student that you think should be thinking about a career in intelligence, there is a link directly from the MCIIS website to a "request for information" page).
Finally, the last time we did this, you crushed our servers with requests, so, if you can't get to the download page immediately, I suggest you wait ten minutes and try again.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Sunday Funnies: Doom-bas! (The Daily Show)
In case you missed the Daily Show's take on military robots, here it is...