tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post2002946474869880110..comments2024-02-22T19:45:29.872-05:00Comments on Sources And Methods: Part 4 -- The Problems With Evaluating Intelligence Products (Evaluating Intelligence)Kristan J. Wheatonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566135545863154089noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-5836590675727893142009-04-27T09:49:00.000-04:002009-04-27T09:49:00.000-04:00Anonymous,
Thanks for the comment regarding the G...Anonymous,<br /><br />Thanks for the comment regarding the George paper. I found it on Rand's website: http://www.rand.org/pubs/authors/g/george_alexander_l.html<br /><br />There are two papers there, to be precise. I am not sure to which one you are referring or if you have a different paper in mind?<br /><br />Having read both the papers, I am also not sure on which point you are making a comparison to this post. The papers deal with the fairly narrow issue of content analysis, a method which has its problems (as do all methods) but which has been made much easier through the use of computers (something that George did not have when he wrote these papers int he 50's). <br /><br />My post, on the other hand, is about intelligence products generally, so I am not sure what the "simpler" technique you describe actually is...<br /><br />KKristan J. Wheatonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02566135545863154089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-80354090062516887222009-04-26T23:19:00.000-04:002009-04-26T23:19:00.000-04:00Folks, see Propaganda Analysis, by Alexander Georg...Folks, see Propaganda Analysis, by Alexander George for a simpler more usable technique for evaluating inferences.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-21659125013058584992009-04-14T12:44:00.000-04:002009-04-14T12:44:00.000-04:00For dimccjf -- I'd also like to learn more about t...For dimccjf -- I'd also like to learn more about the process used in the J2 JCS. How can people learn more?Marknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-14126255004432919342009-02-02T15:54:00.000-05:002009-02-02T15:54:00.000-05:00Thanks for the comment!Can you point to a resource...Thanks for the comment!<BR/><BR/>Can you point to a resource for learning more about this solution?<BR/><BR/>KrisKristan J. Wheatonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02566135545863154089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-44325106278610717562009-02-02T15:27:00.000-05:002009-02-02T15:27:00.000-05:00I think you and Tetlock have made the problem of e...I think you and Tetlock have made the problem of evaluating intelligence judgments needlessly complex, at least from the audience perspective. Much of Phil's work seems devoted to saving face for the analyst. The process is simple and we used it in the J2 JCS for a decade to improve training and performance by 120 analysts.dimccjfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15957164480551384349noreply@blogger.com