tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post7414636722552388069..comments2024-02-22T19:45:29.872-05:00Comments on Sources And Methods: Three Convergent Thinking Techniques Every Analyst Should MasterKristan J. Wheatonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02566135545863154089noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-51298627740403947822014-09-05T02:51:32.049-04:002014-09-05T02:51:32.049-04:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03983279751843228358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-52539119248093878682014-09-03T00:34:45.866-04:002014-09-03T00:34:45.866-04:00Related to Grouping is Abstraction, especially in ...Related to Grouping is Abstraction, especially in relation to evidence and argument. It enables us to ID the more general point being made/addressed, see the bigger picture, and so not get lost among the trees.Yanna Riderhttp://www.yannarider.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-61638835284589126692014-09-02T18:00:13.858-04:002014-09-02T18:00:13.858-04:00Phil Tetlock has done marvelous work but it is a t...Phil Tetlock has done marvelous work but it is a trap to think scenarios generation is a forecasting tool. The value of scenarios is the identification of indicators that would otherwise lack context and meaning. Opening the mind to multiple possibilities is not the same as choosing one as right or even more likely right than others. It is designed to provide insight into the driving forces that one can track; not to pick winners and losers. <br />See, e.g., http://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/resources/SRoct06_3.pdfarsdc202https://www.blogger.com/profile/05770335133208932183noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-58927353952957797752014-09-02T12:35:32.163-04:002014-09-02T12:35:32.163-04:00Very good article and great comment as well. Thes...Very good article and great comment as well. These days with the abundance of information flying about, it's important to practice the above techniques in order to focus and filter through garbage and good intel that at the immediate moment, may not be as critical. As the comment stated, the above technique can help bring light other possibilities that an analyst unconsciously rejects. <br /><br />Ivan Dario Ruizhttp://papaoftheyear.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569772432953120875.post-8654293823949057922014-09-02T12:22:13.291-04:002014-09-02T12:22:13.291-04:00These domains are, indeed, critical to the analyst...These domains are, indeed, critical to the analyst as is one additional factor...quoted from the book by Col Pete Blaber, "Don't get treed by a chihuahua..." (npn). Basically, we become entrapped by what we know that we ignore what we do not know. Thereby, we automatically establish replacements and accept these replacements by default; ignoring any other fact to the contrary. Basically, we 'know' because we 'think we know' and truly ignore that we are without any true support for this 'knowledge.' Thus, when the reality of the situation finally begins to exert itself, we forcefully reject it. <br /><br />Military history is resplendent with such situations. Nijmegan Bridge in WWII; Pearl Harbor; Bay of Pigs; 9/11; Operation Anaconda (Afghanistan - we ignored the failure of the Soviets in the same valley using the same tactics and in spite of photographic evidence obtained by a Delta Force group that went in weeks prior to the operation contrary to orders...and almost were wiped out...); and many, many more...Harry Nimon PhDnoreply@blogger.com