Sources And Methods

Thinking about the future, and, more importantly, how to think about the future.

Thursday, January 2, 2020

How To Think About The Future: A Graphic Prologue

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(Note:  I have been writing bits and pieces of "How To Think About the Future" for some time now and publishing those bits and pie...
4 comments:
Monday, November 18, 2019

Chapter 2: In Which The Brilliant Hypothesis Is Confounded By Damnable Data

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"Stop it, Barsdale!  You're introducing confounds into my experiment!" A little over a month ago, I wrote a post that ask...
2 comments:
Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Analytic Confidence And The New England Patriots: A Hypothesis

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"Don't try to stop me!  I'm having a thought!"  ( Image Source ) I was driving to work this morning, thinking about an...
Monday, September 9, 2019

What Is A "Gray Rhino" And How Do I Tackle One? (+ That Time I Died For 7 Seconds)

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A perfectly ordinary gray rhino.  You still wouldn't want to be surprised by it . By Krish Dulal - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://com...
3 comments:
Monday, August 26, 2019

How To Think About The Future (Part 3--Why Are Questions About Things Outside Your Control So Difficult?)

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I am writing a series of posts about how to think about the future.  In case you missed the first two parts, you can find them here: Part 1...
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Kristan J. Wheaton
I am the Professor of Strategic Futures at the US Army War College.
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