Entrepreneurial Intelligence (ENTINT?)

All entrepreneurs are crazy. 

Nuts.  Cuckoo.  Certifiable dingbats.  Need evidence?  How about this:  According to a study published last year, only about 25% of companies that take venture capital are able to make any money off it -- the other 75% lose at least some and perhaps all of the money.  

Need more?  According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, only about a third of all small businesses make it for longer than 10 years and 30% fold within the first two years!  You have to be crazy to go up against those odds...

Intelligence analysts live to forecast and one of the easiest forecasts you can make, or so it seems, is the sooner-rather-than-later demise of a new business. 

Easy but worthless.

It is a situation that is sort of like the 1990 National Intelligence Estimate on what is now the former Yugoslavia.  It was completed just before the war broke out in full force.  It turned out to be extremely accurate but was virtually useless to the policymakers of the day.  In fact, it was probably counterproductive as it validated the inertia that was prevalent in Washington regarding the issue at the time.

You see, it was in the US's interests -- heck, it was in everyone's interests -- to keep Yugoslavia from breaking up or, if it had to break up, to do it in a way that was neither bloody nor lengthy.  Saying, as the NIE did, that the breakup was inevitable and that there was nothing policymakers could do about it was singularly unhelpful.  The policymakers needed to try and they could have used some intelligence insights to help them.

So it is with entrepreneurs.  Telling them that they are likely to fail probably isn't going to dissuade them from trying; its just going to make them think that intelligence isn't going to be very valuable.  This is a shame, since entrepreneurs probably have more questions about things that are critical to their success or failure but are outside their control (the essence of an intelligence question) than most businesses.

For the last several months I have been busy starting my own company and working on a number of games (one of them - Widget - is about ready to launch.  You can find out more about it here if you are interested).  I know intelligence has a role to play in entrepreneurship but am just beginning to understand what that role is and how it is both different and the same as more traditional notions of intelligence in business.  As I learn new things and gain understanding, I intend to explore these ideas in an occasional series of posts on the topic.

Sources And Methods Games? Yes!

Well, I went and did it!  Started my own company - Sources And Methods Games!

No, I am not quitting my day job.

But ... I do want to explore the intersection between games, intelligence, learning and entrepreneurship (4 big passions of mine).  Doing so from the safety of the University and with someone else's money, however, just didn't seem right somehow.  I suppose I just like testing theories more than talking about them.

What specifically, do I hope to learn?

• What makes a game good?  
• How do games teach?  
• Is it possible to make good games that teach intelligence concepts or methods?  
• Does it make more sense, from the standpoint of teaching intelligence, to focus on tabletop or video games?  
• How is crowdfunding (KickStarter, IndieGoGo, etc.) changing the gaming industry (particularly the tabletop games industry)?  
• What are the intelligence requirements of a globalized, crowdfunded, social media driven business environment?
• Given the research into effectual reasoning and entrepreneurship, what is intelligence's role in a start-up? 
• What are an entrepreneur's Essential Elements of Information (EEIs)?  
• How can they best be met?  

There's more, but this list is a good start.  The bottomline is that this effort -- which is as much a research project as a company -- gives me a chance to explore these questions in a more realistic way.  I recognize that much of the evidence I gather will be anecdotal but I think I will be better able to orient myself on important issues as a result.

This is not the first time I have owned a games company, though.  I ran a small company, Wheaton Publications, back in the early 80's while I was still in law school - ran it right into the ground.  Despite having two pretty good, well-reviewed games, the company was massively under-capitalized and had to be shuttered within 18 months.  

While it was painful at the time, I remember how much I learned from the experience.  While I am no Rockefeller, my financial position has improved a bit since I was a poor law student living in a basement and eating mac and cheese 4 times a week.  I still have good games (including one I which I am about to launch in the next couple of weeks -- if you are interested you can get more information here).  So, who knows?  Maybe I'll make it 24 months this time!

Interactive Online Timeline Of Events In Egypt Since Mubarak Stepped Down (Infographic)

One of our students, Bridget Finn, recently put together a pretty cool product using Dipity, an online timeline tool, to show the timeline of significant events in Egypt since Mubarak stepped down. 

She intends to continue to update the timeline with a specific focus on women's issues and social media, so check back in a few days and see what she has done with it!

Egypt on Dipity.

You Should Follow Me On Twitter! (I'm Not Kidding -- @kwheaton)

I'm not dead.

I do appreciate the emails (well, email, anyway...) expressing some measure of concern about my health given my infrequent posting schedule over the last several months but I have an excuse. 

I have been busy trying to figure out Twitter.

I know, I know; it seemed useless and futile to me as well.  It felt for so many years like this big swamp of Justin Bieber and Ashton Kutcher at one end and people yakking about what they had for lunch at the other. 

Quite recently, though, it has become something different for me.  It began with a simple decision I made this last summer to migrate my "link list" stuff to Twitter.  Link lists are what bloggers call those long lists of hyperlinks they package in a post for their readers.  They are pretty much a staple of any blog -- when you can't think of anything else to write, you do a link list.

Except that most of the stuff I read -- good stuff -- never made it to a link list at all.  Writing it up takes time and I don't have enough of that.  Twitter seemed like a good way to broadcast the good stuff I had found or, increasingly, have sent to me, without busting the social media, fiddling-with-stuff, time budget.

It worked, too.  More importantly, it led me to explore Twitter more deeply.  Most people familiar with the tool already know it to be an excellent source of real time information and, with a little effort, an outstanding stream of curated news and information.  We have even used it to explore a modern interpretation of the age-old intelligence concept of the "agent network". 

As I move forward, I intend to get back to blogging more.  It is still the best way to express more detailed thoughts about education and intelligence and games and other things that interest me.  Blogs are still, to me, at least, more about the conversation and less about concision.  I have been blogging now for over five years and I just don't see myself giving it up.

Still -- you should follow me on Twitter!

How Many Entry-level Analysts Will The US IC Need In 2013? (Survey)

Good question, right? 

 

If you have direct knowledge of information that might help answer the question in the title or you have indirect knowledge that is relevant to the answer to the question in the title, please take 2 minutes to complete this survey. 

 

What do I mean by direct and indirect knowledge?

Direct knowledge means that you know personally or have good information concerning the hiring plans of your agency or organization (or at least your section or division).  You might work in HR or be a manager with hiring responsibilities. 

Indirect knowledge is information that is relevant to the question that is not due to your direct responsibilities.  You might have spoken with an HR manager or have been involved in meetings where this issue was discussed. 

We are NOT looking for opinion based on purely circumstantial information.  If you are not involved in the hiring process either directly or indirectly, please DO NOT take this survey.

Why are we interested?

Every year, other disciplines announce hiring projections for the year:  "This year's hot jobs are for engineers and chimney sweeps."  That sort of thing.  Entry level intelligence analysts who are searching for a job, on the other hand, receive no such guidance.

We hope to change that.  Working with one of our hot-shot grad students, Greg Marchwinski, we put together this survey to get a better feel for the the job market for entry level analysts for the year ahead.

Once we get enough survey data, Greg will compile it and combine it with the macro-level, mostly qualitative data that we already have and put together a "jobs report" for the year ahead.  I will publish it here once we are done.

We understand that there are some legitimate security concerns here so we have tried to frame the questions such that they are focused on broad developments and general trends.  We are not interested in the kind of deep details that might compromise security.

Finally, we intend to follow this study up with similar surveys of the law enforcement and business job markets for entry-level intelligence analysts as well.

By the way, this is the same question we asked last year and here is the answer we got...

Thanks for your participation!