If you use only one analytic methodology this week, Structured Role Playing (SRP) should be it.
SRP as a way to improve analysis boasts supportive literature from the fields of law, military, pedagogy and politics. It is also frequently compared - and compared favorably - to other approaches such as Devil's Advocacy, expert opinion judgments and game theory within the relevant academic literature (check out the list of references at the bottom for more info).
|Note: The 2011 study is the "role-thinking" study which, |
although yielding better than chance results, was not as effective
Basically, SRP is putting yourself in another person's shoes and looking at situations from different vantage points.
Sounds pretty straightforward.
But it's more than just thinking through what another person might be experiencing (a process cleverly named "role-thinking"by Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong in 2011 which has shown to be less effective than SRP).
It's sitting down with a group of analysts, assigning roles of various actors and playing out situations as if you were those people, acting with the cultural, political and personal motivations of all parties involved. It is spontaneous. And, if done properly, can be extremely revealing.
In order to implement SRP correctly, there are certain criteria that have to be met.
The two main criteria for effective SRP are that it has to be as realistic as possible and that the scenarios be objective (not decisively biased towards one outcome or another).
Beyond those structural tenets, other recommendations for effective SRP include:
- Assign roles before presenting the situation (according to Linda Babcock, this makes a big difference).
- Ensure a high level of involvement by participants (also called "active role playing" as opposed to "passive role playing" or "role thinking"). This involves personal and spontaneous interaction between participants.
- Maintain a low degree of response specificity. It is better to let participants improvise responses than to have them select responses from a predetermined list, for example, in a multiple choice format.
As is the case with all methodologies, however, there are critics of the technique.
The main criticism of SRP is its relative ineffectiveness when not correctly implemented. As mentioned above, "role-thinking" does not work very well at all. This point, however, is easily addressed: Follow the simple guidelines to ensure correct implementation of SRP.
The second, less investigated criticism of SRP is overconfidence resulting from having employed the technique in the first place. This phenomenon, if replicated, is generally true for any analytic methodology.
- Armstrong, J. S. (2001a). Role playing: A method to forecasting decisions. In Armstrong, J. S. (Ed.), Principles of forecasting: A handbook for researchers and practitioners. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic, 15-30.
- Armstrong, J. S. (2001b). Selecting forecasting methods. In Armstrong, J. S. (Ed.), Principles of forecasting: A handbook for researchers and practitioners. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic, 365-386.
- Babcock, L., Loewenstein, G., Issacharoff, S., & Camerer, C. (1995). Biased judgments of fairness in bargaining. The American Economic Review, 85, 1337-1343.
- Galinsky, A. D. & Mussweiler, T. (2001). First offers as anchors: The role of perspective-taking and negotiator focus. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 81, 657-669.
- Green, K. C. (2002). Forecasting decisions in conflict situations: A comparison of game theory, role-playing, and unaided judgment. International Journal of Forecasting, 18, 321-344.
- Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2011). Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts. International Journal of Forecasting, 27(1), 69-80.