Wednesday, August 8, 2018

6 Things To Think About While Discussing Requirements With A Decisionmaker (Part 3)

"I challenge your assumptions, sir!"
How can I use the limited amount of time my decisionmakers have to discuss their intelligence requirements to get the maximum return on that investment?  Earlier this summer, I began a series on this precise theme.

I have already written about how to prepare for an intelligence requirements meeting and about how to deal with a virtual intelligence requirements environment.  Today, I am writing part three of a six part series discussing what intel professionals need to think about when they are actually in the meeting, talking to a decisionmaker about his or her requirements.

3. What are the DM's assumptions?

There are three kinds of assumptions intelligence professionals need to watch for in their DMs when discussing requirements:
  • About the requirement
  • About the answer to the requirement
  • About the intel team
Consider this requirement:  "Will the Chinese provide the equipment for the expansion of mobile cellphone services into rural Ghana?"  The DM is clearly assuming that there is going to be an expansion of cellphone services.  That doesn't make it a bad requirement but analysts should start by checking this assumption.  

Note also that the DM did not frame the question as "Who is going to provide the equipment...".  Rather, he or she highlighted the potential role of the Chinese.  This kind of framing suggests that the DM thinks he or she already knows the answer to the requirement but just wants a "double check".  Other interpretations are possible, of course, but it is worth noting if only so the intelligence professionals working the issue don't approach the problem with blinders on.

Finally, it is also important to think about the assumptions the DM has about the team working on the requirement.  What does the DM see when he or she looks out at our team?  Are we all young and eager?  Old and grizzled?  Does our reputation - good or bad - precede us?  Finally, is the DM asking the "real" requirement or just what he or she thinks the team can handle?  Not getting at the real questions the DM needs answered is a recipe for failure or, at least, the perception of failure, which is probably worse..

Next Week:  #4 What does the DM mean when he/she/they say "x"?

Tuesday, August 7, 2018

6 Things To Think About While Discussing Requirements With A Decisionmaker (Part 2)

"And what kind of intelligence would the gentleman prefer today?"
How can I use the limited amount of time my decisionmakers have to discuss their intelligence requirements to get the maximum return on that investment?  Earlier this summer, I began a series on this precise theme.

I have already written about how to prepare for an intelligence requirements meeting and about how to deal with a virtual intelligence requirements environment.  Today, I am writing part two of a six part series discussing what intel professionals need to think about when they are actually in the meeting, talking to a decisionmaker about his or her requirements.

2.  What kind of intelligence is the DM looking for?

There are two broad (and informal) categories of intelligence - descriptive and estimative.  Descriptive intelligence is about explaining something that is relevant to the decision at hand.  Estimative intelligence is about what that "something" is likely to do next.  It is the difference between "Who is the president of Burkina Faso now?" and "Who is the next president of Burkina Faso likely to be?"

Estimative intelligence is obviously more valuable than descriptive intelligence.  Estimative intelligence allows the DM and his or her operational staff to plan for the future, to be proactive instead of reactive.  Surprisingly, though, DMs often forget to ask for estimates regarding issues they think will be relevant to their decisions.  It is worth the intelligence professionals time, therefore, to look for places where an estimate might be useful and suggest it as an additional requirement.

While I am never one to look for more work, the truth is that descriptive intelligence is becoming easier and easier to find.  The real value in having dedicated intel staff is in that staff's ability to make estimates.  If all you do is what computers do well (IE describe) then you run the risk of being downsized or eliminated the next time there is a budget crunch.

Tomorrow:  #3 What are the DM's assumptions?

Monday, August 6, 2018

6 Things To Think About While Discussing Requirements With A Decisionmaker

An intel professional successfully gets everything he needs from a
DM in a requirements briefing.  Guess which one is the unicorn...
How can I use the limited amount of time my decisionmakers have to discuss their intelligence requirements to get the maximum return on that investment?  Earlier this summer, I began a series on this precise theme.

I have already written about how to prepare for an intelligence requirements meeting and about how to deal with a virtual intelligence requirements environment.  Today, I am writing part one of a six part series discussing what intel professionals need to think about when they are actually in the meeting, talking to a decisionmaker about his or her requirements.

1.  Does the DM really want intelligence?

It goes without saying that an organization's mission is going to drive its intel requirements.  Whether the goal is to launch a new product line or take the next hill, decisionmakers need intel to help them think through the problem.

Unfortunately, DMs often conflate operational concerns ("What are we going to do?" kinds of questions) with intel concerns ("What is the other guy going to do?" kinds of questions).  This is particularly true in a business environment where intelligence as a distinct function of business is a relatively new concept.

Good intelligence requirements are typically about something which is important to an organization's success or failure but which is also outside that organization's control.  Good intelligence requirements are, in short, about the "other guy" - the enemy, the competitor, the criminal - or, at least, about the external environment.

Intelligence professionals need to be able to extract intelligence requirements from this broader conversation, play them back to the DM to confirm that both parties understand what needs to be done before they go to work.

Tomorrow:  #2 What kind of intelligence is the DM looking for?