Al Qa'ida's Foreign Fighters In Iraq (CTC West Point)

Released just before Christmas and available here for full download, the CTC at West Point has done a stellar job analyzing the Al Qai'ida records captured in the raid near Sinjar along Iraq's Syrian border in October 2007.

Highlights from the Conclusion include (Hyperlinks are mine):

• "Saudis made up the largest contingent of foreign fighters entering Iraq. Libyans were second (first if measured in percapita terms) and Syrians a distant third. In terms of sheer numbers, Saudis constituted the largest group of foreign fighters and contributed the most overall suicide bombers, but the percentage of Saudi fighters listed as suicide bombers was actually lower than non‐Saudis."

• "Recent political developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the prevalence of Libyan fighters in Iraq, and evidence of a well‐established smuggling route for Libyans through Egypt, suggests that Libyan factions (primarily the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group) are increasingly important in al‐Qa’ida."

• "The Sinjar Records reinforce anecdotal accounts suggesting that al‐Qa’ida’s Iraqi affiliates rely on smugglers and criminals—rather than their own personnel—to funnel recruits into Iraq."

• "Many of the foreign fighters entering Iraq arrived with a group from their hometown, suggesting that al‐Qa’ida’s recruiters try to attract groups of friends simultaneously."

• "The majority of fighters that listed their occupation before traveling to Iraq were students. Universities have become a critical recruiting field for al‐Qa’ida."

• "Al‐Qa’ida’s reliance on criminal and smuggling networks exposes it to the greed of mercenaries. In many cases, the United States should target work to destroy these networks, but the U.S. must remain flexible enough to recognize opportunities to co‐opt, rather than simply annihilate, such systems."

• "The Libyan Islamic Fighting Group’s unification with al‐Qa’ida and its apparent decision to prioritize providing logistical support to the Islamic State of Iraq is likely controversial within the organization."

• "The Islamic State of Iraq has failed politically because it has been unable to balance the practical demands of its local Iraqi constituency and the religious demands of its foreign supporters."

• "The Syrian and Libyan governments share the United States’ concerns about violent salafi‐jihadi ideology and the violence perpetrated by its adherents. These governments, like others in the Middle East, fear violence inside their borders and would much rather radical elements go to Iraq rather than cause unrest at home. U.S. and Coalition efforts to stem the flow of fighters into Iraq will be enhanced if they address the entire logistical chain that supports the movement of these individuals—beginning in their home countries – rather than just their Syrian entry points."

Defeating Cross Border Insurgencies (Thesis)

The new batch of CGSC masters theses are online and available for download here. One that stood out immediately due to its topic was Major Thorsten Lyhne Jorgensen's thesis, "Defeating Cross Border Insurgencies" (The full text can be downloaded here). MAJ Jorgenson is from Denmark yet his thesis is better written and more methodologically sound than many I have read. Using a comparative case study as the broad method and the theoretical models of Collier-Hoeffler combined with the counter-insurgency insights from O'Neill to help focus his research, MAJ Jorgenson has identified some trends that appear to be constant across a wide realm of cross-border insurgencies. Highlights from the abstract and the text include (Italics are mine):

• "This thesis assesses whether COIN efforts can be successful when the insurgents are operating from safe havens in neighboring states."

• "In order for the COIN to be successful, a number of prerequisites must be in place. The political and military leadership and the civilian and military operators on the ground have to be historical and cultural aware with regards to the region in which operations are conducted, especially with regards to the structural aspects in effect amongst the local populace." (There are a couple of typos in the above and they were in the original. MAJ Jorgenson's thesis is 130+ pages and English can't be his first language. No foul, then, to the author; but I felt like it needed an explanation...)
  

• "A well planned and coordinated application of the DIME is the key to success. The regional aspects of the cross border insurgencies call upon a diplomatic approach involving regional players as well as IO, IGO and NGOs."

• "The Informational instrument of national power is a proactive tool in the fight against the insurgency. This powerful instrument is difficult to control by nature, needs to be both primitive and sophisticated in nature and message. Primitive in nature when dealing with the local goatherd or illiterate and sophisticated and professional when dealing with the world press."

• "The Military instrument of national power is a necessity in securing the populace. The application of the Military instrument must be immediately followed by reconstruction efforts aiming to mitigate poverty and everyday suffering. Executing projects, both long and short term, utilizing local labor is a way to counter the alarming unemployment figures which are potential recruitment bases for the insurgency. Sufficient boots on the ground is essential to maintain presence and thereby maintain legitimacy of the entire COIN effort."

• "The Economic instrument is important especially when dealing with underdeveloped populaces such as the ones in Oman, Kashmir and Afghanistan. A significant and long term effort like the one in Oman stands good chances of success. Decreasing poverty and providing jobs through economically secured programs are a safe way to gain legitimacy and support within the local populace. As for the previous instruments of national power, the Economic instrument must be applied in accordance with a well coordinated regional plan."

Presents, Presents, Presents! (Happy Holidays!)

It is the holiday season just about everywhere so here is a list of goodies for just about every type person (or every type person that reads this blog...).

For The Operationally Inclined:

Operation Christmas. Ever wonder how the jolly old elf does it? Wired magazine has finally dug the dirt and ripped the lid off of Santa, Inc.

NORAD Tracks Santa. NORAD has been doing this for years and has recently upgraded to a real-time version integrated with GoogleEarth and live video.

For The Audiophile:

Vintage Christmas Wax. SAM is all about independent and new music and there is nothing more "indie" than these cleaned up .mp3s of old wax canister versions of classic Christmas songs. You never heard the Edison (as in Thomas Alva Edison) Mixed Quartet sing "O Come All Ye Faithful"? Here is your chance.

Sara Bareilles. Not all that Christmas-y but if you like Norah Jones you will likely like Ms. Bareilles.


For The Historian:

Christmas At War. The Imperial War Museum has put together a very interesting online exhibit of a number of stories and images of Christmas at War. Once you have finished with this exhibit, I recommend you check out the rest of this detailed site.

For The New Year:

Writing Proper Thank-You Notes. Excellent outline for doing what we know needs to be done.

Beating The Little Hater. A little hip-hop motivational lecture for the New Year from IllDoctrine.

Getting Back To School, Work Or Both:

SeatGuru.com. Find the best seats on every plane, every airline.

In-Flight Fitness Guide. The American Physical Therapy Association comes to the rescue with this series of tips for keeping yourself loose and healthy on long flights.

Getting More Use Out Of MS Outlook (MakeUseOf.com)

MakeUseOf.com has a good post about how to get more out MS's Outlook by making it easier to collaborate. There are tools here for college students, professionals and just people who want to get more out of this nearly ubiquitous tool.

4 Minute History Lesson On Saudi Arabia (YouTube)

Goodexperience.com highlights the potential value of the opening four minutes to the recently released movie, "The Kingdom", as a pretty good summary of recent Saudi history. I am no Saudi historian so I will leave it to the experts to decide. If you find it as compelling as I did and if it is reasonably accurate, it might be a useful snippet for a terrorism class: