Evaluating Intelligence (Final Version With Abstract)

Abstract:

Evaluating intelligence is a difficult task. This paper examines why it is so difficult, suggests a new model for thinking about the process of evaluating intelligence and tests that model against several documents prepared by the US National Intelligence Council in the run-up to the Iraq War.

PDF Version (Pre-pub Complete, ISA 2009)

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Part 1 -- Introduction
Part 2 -- A Tale Of Two Weathermen
Part 3 -- A Model For Evaluating Intelligence
Part 4 -- The Problem With Evaluating Intelligence Products
Part 5 -- The Problem With Evaluating The Intelligence Process
Part 6 -- The Decisionmaker's Perspective
Part 7 -- The Iraq WMD Estimate And Other Iraq Pre-War Assessments
Part 8 -- Batting Averages
Part 9 -- Final Thoughts