Friday, April 29, 2011

Intel Deathmatch II: Who Will "Win" In Libya? ( that was fun!

If you missed Wednesday's post, we (me and about 250 readers) have been playing around with a new web/iPhone gadget called Swayable here at SAM.

The simple but brilliantly executed idea behind this tool is to get people in your social network to help you decide between two competing options. While much of the action on the Swayable site seems to center on which picture of Justin Bieber is "cutest", I decided to test it out on something which might be of a bit more interest to intelligence professionals.

Specifically, I wanted to know which of two classic intel texts should I read first (assuming I only had time to read one), Lowenthal or Clark. As of a few minutes ago, it was a dead heat (though, to be fair, Lowenthal has led for most of the last 48 hours by a slight but noticeable margin).

Today, I thought I would push the outside of Swayable's envelope once again. Here are a few more substantial questions for you. First, I want to know who is going to "win" in Libya (you can define winning any way you want):

Second, I want to know, if the pro-Gaddafi forces win, what will be the primary reason for the victory:

Finally, I want to know, if the Anti-Gaddafi forces win, with whom will they primarily align themselves after the conflict is over:

A couple of questions and comments have also come up about the service that I think are worth noting here.

First, I can't see who voted which way. All I can see is what you can see. Second, it is possible to preview the results before you cast your vote only on the web-based version of the tool. On the iPhone version, this feature is disabled.

I have had a few very kind emails from the founder of Swayable, Lindsey Harper, and she intends to run some tests to see how hiding the results before the vote would work on the web app as well.

Finally, she indicated that she plans to have an Android version out by summer!

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