Convert 2D To 3D Online For Free! (Stanford AI Lab)

Ashutosh Saxena and his team of brilliant computer programmers at the Stanford AI Lab have created an intensely cool bit of web based software. The site, called Make3D, allows you to upload a 2D image and then the software renders it as a 3D image, sends you an email telling you its ready and posts it to a personal page for your viewing.

I converted a number of images (taken from .mil sites) last night. The process was painless. You can see an example below (you need to have the Shockwave plugin installed to see these images. You can get this plugin for free here):



To get the full effect you need to use the arrow keys, the page up and page down keys and the Shift+Arrow keys to navigate. As you play around with it, you will notice the picture tends to get distorted pretty quickly. You can always go back to the original image by hitting the "reset view' button. All of the images I uploaded are available for viewing here. My favorites are this one, the "Para Jump" and the "Patrol On the Roof".

What Do Words Of Estimative Probability Mean? (Part 1 -- Introduction)

(Note: This is another attempt at what I call "experimental scholarship" (See this series for my first attempt). The discussion regarding the use of blogs as a way to publish scholarly works (or, in my case, more-or-less scholarly works...) is pretty hot and heavy right now. However, I found writing an article in the form of a series of blog posts extraordinarily useful the first time, if only for the comments that I received that I am sure will make any traditional journal article just that much better. It was the positive feedback I received from that experience that makes me want to give it another go.)

I was cleaning my office this week in anticipation of a new term (we are on a quarter system at Mercyhurst) and I ran across the results of a classroom exercise I conduct regarding the meaning of words of estimative probability (such as “likely” or “virtually certain”) or as they are commonly referred to around here, WEPs. I thought some discussion of the exercise I use and the results of that exercise would be of interest to intelligence studies students and educators.

The value of WEPs is, of course, an ongoing question both within the intelligence community and among its critics. At one end of the spectrum are those, like Michael Schrage, who call for numeric estimates -- x has a 75% chance of happening plus or minus 10%, that sort of thing. At the other end of the spectrum are those who Sherman Kent called “poets” who believe that it doesn’t matter what an analyst says, policymakers and others will interpret the analysis however they wish. The intelligence community (IC) has recently moved further in the direction of a position that, while not quite as extreme as Schrage’s, is clearly on that side of the spectrum as the “best practice” for effectively communicating the results of intelligence analysis to decisionmakers.

Much of the reason for using WEPs instead of numbers centers around the imprecise nature of intelligence analysis in general, coupled with the misunderstandings that could arise in the minds of decisionmakers if analysts used numbers to communicate their estimative judgments. A large part of the argument against WEPs, on the other hand, has to do with the imprecise meaning of the words themselves. In other words, what exactly does ‘likely” mean? That is where I intend to go next.

Tomorrow -- To Kent And Beyond!

Creating A Stable And Secure "Iraqracy" (CSIS)

If you haven't seen Anthony Cordesman's latest (13 FEB) briefing from the battlefield on Iraq out of the Center For Strategic And International Studies you should take the time to download it (full text can be downloaded here. Caution: It is a large file -- 7.3 MB). Cordesman is both comprehensive and current in his generally positive assessment of the situation in Iraq. Of particular note are the wide variety of graphs and charts he uses (the map below is of ethnic and sectarian divisions in Iraq). These alone are worth the price of admission...

Highlights from the synopsis on the website include:

• "No one can spend some 10 days visiting the battlefields in Iraq without seeing major progress in every area. A combination of the surge, improved win and hold tactics, the tribal uprising in Anbar and other provinces, the Sadr ceasefire, and major advances in the use of IS&R have transformed the battle against Al Qaida in Iraq."

• "At the same time, this progress is dependent on major additional Iraqi government action well beyond the passing of the Iraqi FY2008 budget, the provincial powers act, and the laws easing de-Baathification."

• "...it is clear that Iraq can only succeed with years of additional US support in security, governance, and development."

• "It will take strong US involvement throughout the life of the next Administration to succeed, and it may well take US aid through 2016. There is a strong case for limiting troop reductions beyond a force of 15 brigade equivalents to patient conditions-based steps that ensure there will be no need to rush back US forces or see Iraqi forces become vulnerable. There is an even stronger case for sustained aid in governance and development until the Iraqi central government learns how to spend effectively and do so with limits to waste, corruption, and ethno-sectarian bias."

• "Serious threats can still bring defeat or paralysis over the coming years, although this seems significantly less likely than during the fall of 2007:"

• "A central government failure to move funds to key provinces, improve services, fund development, and employ young men."
  
  
• "A central government failure to reach out to the Sunni and Shi'ite Sons of Iraq and incorporate many into the Iraq security services."
  
  
• "Potential Arab-Kurdish-minority divisions over Kurdish autonomy in the north, and creating some form of Kurdish federal zone."
  
  
• "The risk of Shi'ite divisions and infighting in the south, particularly between the Hakim and Sadr factions, and Sunni-Shi'ite tensions over some form of Shi'ite federalism."
  
  
• "Continued Iranian support of militias and divisions and growing Iranian influence in Basra and the south."
  
  
• "The need for local legitimacy through provincial and local elections in 2008, and open lists and local representation in the COR election in 2009."
  
  
• "Moving towards full development and sustained employment, and for a fair sharing of petroleum wealth a resources."
  

Chinese Hackers, Travel Safety And What's Running On My Computer? (Resource Roundup)

The Dark Visitor. I ran across this blog this weekend and while it may be well known to some, it was new to me. While I am no expert on China or on hacking, I was impressed by the depth and scope of the offerings. The credentials of the author also seem quite robust. If Chinese hacking is an area of interest, this is likely a blog well worth watching.

International Travel Safety Information For Students. The State Department has put out a press release that any student thinking about going abroad for the summer should check out.

exeLibrary. Push Ctl-Alt-Delete on your windows based computer, click on Task Manager, click on the Processes tab. Do you understand what your computer is doing? Ever wonder what "realsched.exe" really is? This is the place to make sense of all that stuff running in the background on your computer. McAfee Site Advisor gives it a "green check" so it is unlikely a deceptive or malicious site.

Sunday Funnies: The Trunk Monkey

If you haven't seen the trunk monkey ads (for some auto dealer out in Oregon) you owe it to yourself to take a look. Funny and entirely appropriate for Sunday morning...