Suicide Bombings In Iraq And The World View Of Iran's Most Powerful Leader (Fora.tv)

Here are a couple of recent videos that should be of interest to many:

Mohammed Hafez on Suicide Bombings in Iraq
Suicide Bombings in Iraq: Understanding the Strategy and Ideology with author Mohammed Hafez.
Program and discussion: http://fora.tv/fora/showthread.php?t=3715

The World View Of Iran's Most Powerful Leader
Category:
Reading Khamenei: The World View Of Iran's Most Powerful Leader with remarks by Karim Sadjadpour, Mohsen Milani, and Afshin Molavi. Dr. Haleh Esfandiari moderates the panel.
Program and discussion: http://fora.tv/fora/showthread.php?t=3749

Serious COOLINT: Amazing 3D Search Engine (Tianamo)

Tianamo is a search engine that is still in beta but it is worth a look if only for the 3D display it gives your results. You can sign up for access to the full screen beta version here but the excellent people at Tianamo have given me an embed code so you try it out right in SAM! Have fun!

Iraq NIE Released, Countdown Begins For Unclass Version (NYT)

The New York Times is reporting this morning that the latest National Intelligence Estimate on the situation in Iraq has been released. The report also quotes anonymous sources (of course) concerning the content: "The new intelligence estimate cites slow but steady progress by Iraqi politicians on forging alliances between Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq" and "several factors that could reverse these trends: including a campaign of violence by Shiite splinter groups and the possibility that the government would not carry out a series of reconciliation laws Iraq’s Parliament passed recently."

The Times report goes on to state that Senators Carl Levin and Edward Kennedy have already asked for an unclassified version of the NIE, stating, “Without a current unclassified assessment of the situation in Iraq, Congress and the American people will not have the essential information needed for an informed public debate" (Note: Press release confirming letter is here). "Authorized leak" versus "unclassified version" is a distinction without a difference. I say there will be an unclass version on the streets before the Pennsylvania primary. Any takers?

Analytic Confidence Defined...Finally! (Original Research)

One of the great benefits of teaching at Mercyhurst is having the opportunity to work with a bunch of dedicated and very intelligent students. Another advantage is having enough students in the intelligence studies program to be able to conduct meaningful experiments.

Both factors come into play in the newly published thesis, Appropriate Factors To Consider When Assessing Analytic Confidence In Intelligence Analysis by one of our grad students, Josh Peterson (click here to download the full text. The full text will also be permanently available in the Mercyhurst Student Projects link list in the right hand column of this blog). Josh presented some of his research and findings at the recently completed ISA Conference but the full study is presented here for the first time.

I have written about the problems with the concept of analytic confidence before. Some analysts interpret analytic confidence psychologically (i.e. how the analyst feels about his or her analysis) while some use it estimatively (e.g. "I am confident that X will happen"). I have also argued that neither makes much sense in the context of modern best practices for intelligence analysis.

Analytic confidence really has to do with how well calibrated a particular estimate is. Both an experienced analyst and a beginner might say that "X is likely" but one would hope (vainly, perhaps) that the expert would have a tighter shot group around the target than the newbie.

Josh takes this as his starting point and asks, "What, then, are the relevant, legitimate elements of analytic confidence? What should analysts consider when they are asked to state how confident they are in their analysis?" Through a good bit of research (laid out in his lit review) he identified seven elements that seemed to legitimately underpin the concept of analytic confidence. They are: Source reliability, source corroboration, use of a structured method to do the analysis, analyst level of expertise, amount of collaboration between analysts, task complexity and time pressure.

Josh then created scenarios that were similar but, in one case, all of the elements mentioned above were extremely negative (low source reliability, high time pressure, etc) and, in another case, the elements were extremely positive (high source reliability, use of a structured method, etc.). Josh also established a third, control, group to help establish the validity of his experiment.

Josh used the students here at Mercyhurst as subjects for the studies. The students here get a good bit of real world experience in doing analysis both in our classes and in the internships and contract work we do so I think they are good proxies for entry-level analysts in the Intelligence Community.

Josh found that students could accurately identify high confidence from low confidence scenarios but that they were doing this largely through intuition. He suggested that we probably needed to update our curriculum in order to better teach our students those elements that should legitimately raise or lower an analyst's confidence in his or her work (suggestions we have already adopted).

Finally, Josh took his results and his research and combined them into a rubric (see below) that analysts can use to help score their confidence. Josh did not have time to test this rubric and the weighting in it represents his interpretation of the relative importance of each factor based on his read of the literature. Given how far he had already come, he wisely left these tasks to future researchers.



Analytic confidence is a tough nut to crack. It is hard to explain and even more difficult to research and test. Josh has taken a good first cut at it, though, and I think his work deserves some attention if only as a step upon which others can build.

Language Resources And A Military Directory (Link List)

Two good resources stumbled into the 'ol inbox in the last 24 hours:

EduNet Language Page. Edunet, "a virtual community for those involved in education in Ireland", has a comprehensive list of language resources for just about any language in the world. The site also contains a number of links to books and texts, linguistics websites and multilingual resources.

The Combined Arms Research Library's Link Directory. The CARL has done it again! Designed primarily for the military professional, they have put together a very deep directory of links to a variety of useful resources. For the intelligence student, teacher or professional, particularly useful are the links to crisis planning and country studies, news services, maps and the world's armed forces. For the historian, there is a good bit here including some obscure items such as old WW II technical manuals along with an extensive link list of more traditional fare.