Sunday, March 23, 2008

The Revolution Begins On Page Five: The Changing Nature Of The NIE And Its Implications For Intelligence (Final Version With Abstract)


There has been a good bit of discussion in the press and elsewhere concerning the recently released National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program.
Virtually all of this commentary has focused on the facts, sources and logic – the content – of the estimate. It is my position that, while the content is fascinating, the most interesting story behind the NIE has to do with the changes in form that this latest NIE has adopted; that what the National Intelligence Council (NIC) has said is, in many ways, less interesting than the way it has decided to say it. This shift in form implies a new, emerging theory of intelligence – what intelligence is and how to do it – that is likely to influence intelligence communities worldwide. “Emerging”, however, is the key term here. As this article will highlight, the revolution may have begun but it is far from complete

PDF Version (Pre-pub/Complete)

HTML Version:
Part 1 -- Welcome To The Revolution
Part 2 -- Some History
Part 3 -- The Revolution Begins
Part 4 -- Page Five In Detail
Part 5 -- Enough Exposition, Let's Get Down To It...
Part 6 -- Digging Deeper
Part 7 -- Looking At The Fine Print
Part 8 -- Confidence Is Not the Only Issue
Part 9 -- Waffle Words And Intel-Speak
Part 10 -- The Problem With “If”
Part 11 -- One More Thing
Part 12 -- Final Thoughts

No comments: