Note: This is the third part in a multi-part series covering an extensive project on the human geography of Turkey and network analysis applications within the field of Intelligence Studies. Be sure to read the first two posts, My Conversation With The Free Syrian Army and Turkey Redrawn.
|World Migration into Turkey|
Source: International Organization for Migration Map
Using this technique, I was able to make predictions that read something like this:
"The ethnolinguistic populations within Turkey that will likely expand within the next 12 to 24 months are Bulgarians, Serbs, Iraqi Kurds, Iranian Arabs and Azerbaijanis."and...
"The groups that are highly likely to impact Turkey within the next 12 to 24 months are Syrians and Kurds (from Syria, Iraq and Iran)."Where did these predictions come from?
I know what you're thinking, and yes, gravity models do have to do with gravity and yes, gravity models do happily reside within the domain of physics.
Now, before you close the page, I am not going to spend the next four hundred or so words discussing Newton's Law of Universal Gravitation. Instead, on a one-stop flight from physics to intel, we will have a brief layover in the discipline of economics.
I said, don't close the page!
Back in the 1950s, economists began to import gravity models into economics to predict trade flows and it looked something like this:
- By adding the s variable measured on a scale of one to four, he factors in the well-known assumption in sociolinguistics that contact occurs more readily between groups that have "prior-existing linguistic similarity." This means that if the languages spoken by Population i and Population j are mutually intelligible (such as American English and British English), the s variable would be higher than for, say, American English and Italian).
- By adding the second half of the equation, he gives the model directionality. The original gravity model was intended to predict bilateral trade, meaning it would predict the economic contact between one country and another. Trudgill's model predicts the influence country Pi will have on country Pj as opposed to the bilateral contact country Pi and country Pj will have.
|Figure 1. Results of gravity model analysis represented geospatially.|
Green areas: Ethnolinguistic areas that are highly likely to expand in the next 12 to 24 months
Black areas: Ethnolinguistic areas that are likely to expand in the next 12 to 24 months
Click here for a map of all the ethnolinguistic areas of Turkey