Part 11 -- Advice From Veterans (How To Get A Job In Intelligence)

Part 1 -- Introduction
Part 2 -- The Intelligence Job Market From 20,000 Feet
Part 3 -- The Good News!
Part 4 -- Even Better News!
Part 5 -- Beyond The Big Three
Part 6 -- Beyond Borders
Part 7 -- Beyond Borders: India, Europe And South Africa
Part 8 -- Going It On Your Own
Part 9 -- The 5 Things You Must Have
Part 10 -- Advice From The Trenches
Special Report: Where The Jobs Are, 2009

As I was doing research for this series, I reached out to a number of my colleagues for advice. I received some very good answers back. There was a surprising amount of agreement among these public and private sector veterans of intelligence work. Generally, their comments broke down along three lines, however: Specific areas to look for jobs or specific skills needed to get a job, the importance of internships and, finally, general advice to the job hunter.

(Note: All of the people quoted in today's post are intel veterans. They are trying to be helpful by providing the benefits of that experience to young analysts looking for their first job. These comments should not be construed, however, as the "official position" of their respective agencies, companies or organizations.)

Specifics

Deborah Osborne, who writes the popular crime analysis blog, Analyst's Corner and has a consulting business with the same name, provided some very specific guidance for entry-level analysts interested in pursuing careers in law enforcement intelligence.

"Certain parts of the country," she said, "have many more local level crime intelligence analysts jobs. The most concentrated areas for local level law enforcement analyst positions in the United States include the following states: Massachusetts, Virginia, Florida, Texas, Kansas, California, Arizona, Washington, and Colorado. This doesn't mean that other states don't have such positions - just that the concept of crime intelligence analysis is well-established in the listed states."

Drew Perez, of the Lockheed Martin Center For Security Analysis and the author of the also popular national security focused blog, JIOX, took a slightly different but no less useful perspective when he outlined the "hot" areas for analysts seeking employment today: "Competitive Intelligence, Information Operations, Perception Management, Prediction Markets."

Drew goes on to say, "Another area identified in the market research I conducted 2-years ago for Lockheed Martin showed that significant opportunities exist outside the traditional intelligence community (IC). Secretary Napolitano's recent speech at the Council on Foreign Relations addresses these opportunities outside the IC. Here are some excerpts: 'And so we're constantly looking for ways to better share information up and down the response ladder I just described, from individuals and communities to local law enforcement, to the federal level and then at the international level. In other words, as we build the fusion centers, we need to move analytic capacity from the Beltway to the country. In addition to the 70 current fusion center sites, the department will be collaborating with the Department of Justice and the FBI in more than 100 joint terrorism task forces across the country as well. So you see how we're creating the network—individuals, private sector, now among fusion centers and the law enforcement community.' "

What Drew is highlighting seems to be confirmed in the recent report on where the jobs are going to be in government over the next 3 years. That report indicated considerable growth in intel analyst positions within federal law enforcement.

Finally, another intel veteran, Cecilia Anastos, highlighted some particular skill sets that she thought would be useful, including mastery of analytic software (such as Analyst's Notebook), mastery of white hat hacking skills, and language skills (specifically, according to Cecilia, "Arabic, Farsi, Pashtu, Chinese and Spanish….I would include also Portuguese and Italian").

Internships

Virtually all of the intel veterans indicated that an internship was important. Drew was emphatic: "Get an internship with ODNI, CIA, DIA, NSA. The point is someone (an agency) has to sponsor your security clearance to get in the door. "

Deborah offered some good advice to those more interested in law enforcement careers: "Internships can be arranged by your universities and colleges. You may also approach police agencies yourself. Do research on the web to see if they have an analytical unit. Contact the unit staff and ask about opportunities. Some agencies use volunteers to help analysts. Look into these options because developing relationships with analysts and agencies is your number one best bet to getting a job."

Howard Clarke, of Toddington International, a commercial OSINT firm, in outlining some of the problems with intelligence as theory and intelligence as practice, also provided what turns out to be a pretty good checklist for interns when examining a company, agency or organization as a place for potential employment. Specifically, Howard recommends that young analysts, "do their homework on the agencies to which they are applying: as regards organizational culture, use of analysts, relevance and quality of training, etc. To make my concerns a little more concrete, I would point to issues such as:

• Problems with analyst tasking (does this function work well in the prospective hiring organization?)
• Is there coherence between the training provided and the actual work in which analysts are engaged?
• Is the organization analyst-friendly? Are there clear roles and reasonable expectations and a supportive or hostile organizational environment?
• Are systems in place to support the analysts or are the analysts in place to serve the data processing functions?"

Howard's list is a good one in my estimation, even if, in this economy, entry level analysts may not be able to be very picky. At least, they will be able to go into a job with their eyes open.

General Advice

There was quite a bit of just general good advice from all respondents for entry level analysts. Much of it has already been outlined in other parts of this series but some of it, at least, bears repeating and some of it is brand new.

For example, I thought Mats Bjore, the Director of Silobreaker made some excellent points when he stated, "Intelligence analysts need to be able to learn and unlearn at high speed. They also need to have a deep cultural and social understanding for the area or subject they analyze. Furthermore, they need to be able to do their own collection of data and information embedded in the analytical process. I have seen to many examples of "academic" and "IC" methods that give the individual a sense of a proven and accepted workflow, but, for the consumers of intelligence, just produce an overflow of words that they get too late."

Deborah adds that young analysts should make a point of attending "the International Association of Crime Analysts and International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts conferences if you are able. Besides the quality training you will receive there, networking opportunities abound. Make an effort to meet people who head analytical units and don't be afraid to market yourself." I would say the same holds true for the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professional's annual conference as well.

Cecilia recommends picking a specific topic or region of interest as soon as possible, studying as much as one can about it/them and actively writing papers or other documents to help develop your expertise but also to use in a portfolio. Another of her recommendations that made sense (either from an internship or a job perspective) was to "apply to organizations like the Council on Foreign Relations, think tanks, etc. This will brand your name with a region and an expertise, which you can use later to get a job at government agencies."

Next: The Ultimate Intel Job Search Link List

Special Report: Where The Jobs Are, 2009 (How To Get A Job In Intelligence)

Part 1 -- Introduction
Part 2 -- The Intelligence Job Market From 20,000 Feet
Part 3 -- The Good News!
Part 4 -- Even Better News!
Part 5 -- Beyond The Big Three
Part 6 -- Beyond Borders
Part 7 -- Beyond Borders: India, Europe And South Africa
Part 8 -- Going It On Your Own
Part 9 -- The 5 Things You Must Have
Part 10 -- Advice From The Trenches

Just when I was about to wrap this series up, all of a sudden a new report comes out that contains a number of juicy details about where jobs will be in the Federal Government over the next three years -- including amazingly, specifically, jobs in intel analysis!

The site with all the cool info is called Where The Jobs Are, 2009 and many thanks to my colleague Prof. Dave Grabelski for pointing it out to me. The specific section of interest to intelligence professionals is the Security and Protection section.

The Partnership For Public Service, a well-funded and well-connected non-profit with the stated mission to "revitalize our federal government by inspiring a new generation to serve" put the report together based on information provided by the 35 government agencies that participated.

The level of participation by the intel agencies is unclear. The CIA, for example, did not participate. The Department of Defense (DOD) and all of the services did participate, however, and this is important because nearly all (80% or more) of the intel budget falls under DOD.

Maddeningly, it is unclear what the numbers provided by the services actually represent. For example, I am pretty sure that the numbers on the site are for DOD civilian jobs and do not include military positions but I am not positive. Likewise, I am pretty sure that the DOD numbers include subordinate agencies like DIA and NSA but I cannot be sure since the CIA clearly opted out and these other agencies may have done the same.

Beyond the services, I have other questions about what the numbers actually mean. For example, the line item in the report labels the "Professional Field" as Intelligence Analysis. Does this include anyone associated with the intelligence analysis function? Or just analysts?

One article from the Washington Post does shed some additional light on the hiring picture, however. In its article announcing the publication of this report, the Post states:

• "Intelligence agencies expect to hire 5,500 people in the next year and "in the same order of magnitude" over the following two years, according to Ronald P. Sanders, chief human capital officer for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Such agencies include the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency. "It's a combination of how much turnover we expect and how much growth we expect in our budget," Sanders said."

With the data provided by the report and the Post's article, it is possible to go back to the back of the envelope again and do some more analysis.

• Any way you add up the numbers you get a reasonably consistent answer to the question of how many intel analysts the federal government needs each year:
  

• If you add up the numbers for the agencies listed needing professionals in the Intelligence Analysis field in this new report, you get 3676 over the next three years (or about 1200 a year).
• Previous info suggested that about 17% of the intel workforce are analysts. Using Sanders' 5500 total number, this translates to 935 new-hire analysts (17% of 5500) across the entire national security IC each year for the next three years.
  
• Both these numbers triangulate pretty well with my own, earlier, estimate of about 1000 total (as the median. The range was between 400-2000).

• The Department of Justice (DOJ) is undeniably the place to look for jobs as an analyst. More than a third of the total 3676 projected hires in intel analysis over the next three years are coming from DOJ according to the report.

• The factors mentioned by Sanders in the Post article were turnover and budget. Intel budgets are likely to remain flat so my guess is that this is mainly due to turnover and that much of this is driven by retirement. There is some support for this in the new report (see the Turnover Tab on the Security And Protection page).

• The factor not mentioned was a shift away from contract hires in intel (i.e. closing down contracts and making those workers move to the government side). Contractors currently add another 30+% to the total intel workforce. It is hard to imagine much widespread growth in the contract sector but there is no recent evidence to suggest that there will be a decline next year either (For more info on estimates with regard to contract hires see this post).

• Previous info suggests the US national security intelligence community has about 100,000 government employees. 5500 new employees each year based mostly on voluntary turnover translates to roughly a 5.5% turnover rate. If accurate, this places the US national security intelligence community in the same general category as other low turnover rate industries such as biotechnology and other high-tech industries.

Next: More Advice From The Trenches

Part 3 -- The Good News! (How To Get A Job In Intelligence)

Part 1 -- Introduction
Part 2 -- The Intelligence Job Market From 20,000 Feet

The US National Security Community, while the best known, is not, however, the only place to get a job as an intelligence analyst. There are many jobs available in law enforcement, business, and with non-governmental organizations. While not all of these jobs label themselves "intelligence" positions (and more on that later), they all require what is essentially the intelligence analyst skill set.

Intel Analyst Jobs In Law Enforcement

Law enforcement agencies employ a significant number of intelligence and crime analysts. The FBI alone employs more than 2000 analysts (with plans to hire 321 in 2010). While many of these positions are in Washington, the FBI also stations analysts around the country in Field Intelligence Groups, making this an attractive hiring option for people who can't or don't want to move from home.

Beyond the FBI, however, there are a number of other Federal agencies and organizations that use analysts. The Department of Homeland Security employs a very large number of intelligence analysts while the Drug Enforcement Administration and the US Department Of Treasury (through its Financial Crimes Enforcement Network) both employ intelligence analysts. One of the best places to work, I think, is the US Coast Guard. We have placed a number of interns with the "coasties" and they all come back pretty positive about their experience.

All of these agencies are part of what is formally called the US Intelligence Community and the total number of jobs available should have been included in the analysis I did yesterday. I am mentioning these positions here primarily because students have a tendency to focus on the CIA when thinking about intelligence jobs and they ignore these other places with intelligence functions that are every bit as interesting and as challenging as the ones in the Agency.

Beyond The Feds

If these other federal agencies are often overlooked, an even more ignored source of intelligence jobs is state and local law enforcement. There are few good estimates out there regarding the total number of jobs in law enforcement intelligence/crime analysis but my best guess is about 9000.

I get this number by looking at the total number of state and law enforcement agencies in the US (17,876) and dividing it, roughly, in half. I know that most of the agencies in the US have less than 50 officers and that agencies with less than 50 officers are unlikely to have anyone in intel. I also know, however, that some big cities (like New York) have large and very well developed intelligence units. So, I am ball-parking it here again but 9000 sounds about right.

If the numbers I came up with yesterday make any sense at all, then this should translate into about 500 entry level intelligence analyst/crime analyst positions per year opening up in law enforcement around the US.

Unlike the numbers for the big federal agencies, however, there are several reasons why this number could be low. For one reason, California alone estimated that it would need 160 analysts in 2005 for law enforcement and they also estimated, at the time, that the demand would continue to grow.

Another good reason for growth in this field is the increasing popularity of a concept, born in the UK, called "intelligence-led policing." To the extent that this catches on in the US (and it appears to have some traction here), it cannot help but to increase the number of intelligence billets in state and local law enforcement agencies.

Finally, there appears to be a growing interest in law enforcement and intelligence analysis at the career level. The International Association Of Crime Analysts boasts some 1500 members and, while the International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts doesn't advertise its numbers, insiders tell me that it probably has 2-3000 members. Both of these organizations are international but the largest body of members reside in the US.

Why Not Law Enforcement?

There are three reasons why these types of jobs often get overlooked or sidelined. In the first place they are not easy to find. If you want a job in local law enforcement, you have to be looking at state and local government job boards. Some agencies advertise broadly but most do not. Finding these jobs can be a pain.

The second reason that they may not seem appropriate is that some require an applicant to be "sworn" or a full-fledged member of the police force. While my impression is that this is changing, I am virtually certain that a number of these jobs require the analyst to be a cop first and an analyst second.

Finally, these jobs don't pay particularly well. The pay is not awful in most places and in some places it is not bad at all, but, by and large, it does not equal the pay (even when adjusted for cost of living) of an analyst in the Federal government or in business (which I will discuss next).

Next: Even Better News!

Part 2 -- The Intelligence Job Market From 20,000 Feet (How To Get A Job In Intelligence)

Part 1 -- Introduction

A high altitude survey of the intelligence job market yields some pretty interesting observations. The first is that the intelligence job market is finite. There are some pretty distinct boundaries and limits to the size of it and knowing these limits and boundaries helps you understand the potential for jobs in this market.

Let's start with the basics. How many intelligence jobs are there in the US and the world? How many people are actually employed in intelligence? We will start with the most famous of the job markets -- the US Intelligence Community.

Jobs In The US Intelligence Community (IC)

According to a late 2006 US News and World Report article, there are about 100,000 people working in the US intelligence community of which about 17,000 are analysts. This number was more or less confirmed in mid-2008. While it is unclear what exactly has been counted and what has not, these numbers provide a good starting place for some back of the envelope analysis useful to job seekers.

For example, how many analysts does the US IC need each year? Well, if you imagine a 25 year career for an analyst and all of them stay until retirement, then you are looking at about 700 a year (17,000/25 = 680).

It is virtually certain that only a few of these analysts stay all the way until retirement, however. More importantly, the number of analysts in each year group is not equal. In fact, one of the common comments about the intel community is that there are a number of "old" analysts soon to reach retirement and an even larger number of young analysts who have been hired since 9/11. This creates what has been called a "bathtub curve" (where the surge of new analysts is at one end of the time line and the large number of soon-to-be retirees is at the other end. In the middle is a smaller number of people who were hired between the end of the Cold War and 9/11).

All this makes it even more difficult to estimate how many entry-level jobs (including analyst jobs) there are in a given year. I would guess (and it is only a guess) that the "normal" number of analyst positions that need to be filled each year in the US government falls somewhere between half this idealized replacement rate to twice that rate or from about 350 to 1400.

These replacement rate numbers are particularly important as the halcyon days of the hiring boom in intelligence over the last 8 years are likely over. Budget strains are virtually certain to put a damper on significant levels of hiring beyond the replacement rate although the importance of the intelligence mission and the continued emergence of new threats (we are hearing that there will continue to be a growth market in cyber threat analysts into the next year and beyond, for example) will likely ensure that replacements get hired for those analysts and others who retire or quit.

The situation gets even worse, though, when you look at some of the agencies. The CIA is reporting a record number of applications this year -- 180,000 -- for the jobs they have open. The CIA has about 20,000 people in it and, if the overall percentage of analysts in the IC holds true for the CIA, then that means that there are about 3400 (17% of 20,000) analysts housed at Langley. Without any growth and if 5% of them are leaving or retiring this year then there are roughly (very roughly) 170 analyst positions available.

Furthermore, if 17% of the 180,000 applicants are trying to fill analyst positions then getting an analyst job at the CIA is about 18 times harder than getting accepted to Harvard as an undergrad (Harvard's acceptance rate in 2007 was 9.2%. 17% X 180,000 = 30,600. 170/30,600 = .6%).

All of these are just logical guesses but even if I am wrong by half (in other words, the number of jobs is twice what I estimate it to be) the total number of jobs and jobs available each year in the US Intelligence Community (and the number of analyst jobs in particular) is by no means enormous.

Including the number of analyst and other jobs available through contractors does not actually improve the picture that much. If recent numbers are accurate, then there are only about 37,000 contract employees in the US IC. Again, how many of these are analyst positions is unknown but if the 17% rule holds true here as well, it means an increase of a little more than 6000 analysts positions available through various contractors.

While not insubstantial, the number of entry-level positions through contractors is probably even more limited as we go into 2010 than through the government directly. In the first place, a significant number of intelligence professionals take jobs through contractors when they retire. In the second place, the days of large contracts for intelligence services seems to be coming to an end. I suspect that many of these contract jobs may get "converted" to government positions rather than go away (the government is going to still need the analysts regardless of who the analysts work for) over the next several years but the absolute number of positions that will need to be filled each year is probably in lower half of the 75-450 range.

In short, if you add up everything and round it all off to make it easy to wrap your head around it, there are likely about 1000 analyst jobs a year in the combined government and contractor worlds supporting the US IC. The number could be as low as around 400 or as high as about 2000 but given limited prospects for growth and some guess-timates for replacement rates, 1000 seems about right.

A couple of other things come out of this analysis. First, the competition for these jobs is fierce. I strongly suspect that the CIA gets the lion's share of attention when it comes to job applications but I would also guess that, in this economy, all 16 members of the intel community and the contractors that support them have seen an increase in the number of applications.

Likewise, not all of these 1000 or so positions are truly "entry-level". It is inevitable that some, perhaps many, of these positions are limited to people with significant levels of experience or who speak Farsi fluently or whatever.

Finally, I may well be off by a significant amount here. In addition to being terrible at math, the numbers I am basing this analysis on may be gross under- or over-estimates (it IS the intelligence community after all...). I am hoping that some of the readers of this blog will post a comment or two pointing us all to some major hiring binge that I have missed.

Even if I am wrong, however, I think the first thing that job seekers need to fully understand is that the US national security market is both limited and competitive.

Tomorrow: The Good News!