2011 Predictions Of Interest (Link List)

Image via Wikipedia

The end of the year is always a good time for people and institutions who are in the business of taking a look at the year ahead.  Here are a few lists of predictions that might be of interest to readers of SAM:

Next Year's Wars.  A joint effort of Foreign Policy magazine and the International Crisis Group (and first spotted by the always helpful US Army INTLST...), this list provides some initial insight into 16 possible new crises predicted to erupt in 2011.  The list includes no-brainers such as Iraq and Sudan but also includes some surprises.

Forecast 2011:  Conflict Hotspots.  The International Relations and Security Network has put together an interesting end of year report that highlights Tajikistan, Pakistan and the North Caucasus as places to watch in 2011 among its fairly extensive list of reports and primary resources.

7 Technologies That Will Rock 2011.  Technology is not only of general interest to all of us but of specific interest to intelligence professionals.  One new tool, Quora, discussed in this list by TechCrunch, deserves a special look.

Virtual Worlds Predictions.  I know, I know; virtual worlds seem so ... 2009.  That is pretty much where you would expect them to be given the 2010 Gartner Hype Cycle, though.  It is worth taking a look at this list if only for the government and R and D aspects of this technology.

All these predictions tend to increase uncertainty about the future (well, my uncertainty, at least).  If it does the same for you , take a look at Wired magazine's recent essay on the Uncertainty Effect.  It might not help you feel less uncertain but it may well help you understand your own biases a bit better.

Got other lists worth looking at?  Leave 'em in the comments!

Live-blogging The International Security Forum!

View Larger Map

All this week I am in Geneva, Switzerland attending the International Security Forum (ISF). The ISF is a biennial conference designed to discuss "ways to increase communication and cooperation between institutions engaged in research related to international security worldwide."

The conference this year has a strong (for me, at least) intel orientation. The theme is "Coping With Global Change" and the whole first day will be dedicated to the question: which new challenges are looming over the horizon? (Uhhh...that's our job, isn't it?)

The conference has a really interesting line-up of speakers and panels. For example, Nobel Peace Prize winner, Martti Ahtisaari, and Deputy Director for Energy and Environmental Security in the Office of Intelligence and Counterintel at the Department of Energy, Carol Dumaine, will make two of the keynote speeches.

I am here as a guest of the wonderful people at The International Relations and Security Network (ISN) and The Center For Security Studies CSS, two of the many sponsors of the forum. My own modest contribution to the event is a short presentation on "Open Sources And The Death Of The Intelligence Cycle" (Yes, you read that right -- death. And if it is not dead yet, by the end of my presentation, people are going to want to kill it...).

I am going to lug my computer around with me and see if I can do a bit of live-blogging. I will probably not be able to cover most of the panels as Chatham House Rules are in effect but, as with all good European conferences, there are lengthy coffee and lunch breaks and I may be able to corner a few people and capture their insights for you.

As always when I cover these type events, if you look at the schedule and see something or someone interesting, drop me a note or post a comment and I will try to sit in on the presentation or get a few words with the speaker, at least.