Showing posts with label Middle East. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Middle East. Show all posts

Friday, May 13, 2011

Genocide Warning For Kenya And Iran, An Interactive Timeline Of The Arab Spring Protests, New Government Source For Finding Intel Jobs (Link List)

Lots of powerful stuff landing on my desk this week.  Not enough time to write them all up so I just bundled them for the weekend:

The Sentinel Project For Genocide Prevention.  This is yet another example of an NGO getting into the business of intelligence (Another good example is the Southern Poverty Law Center's Intelligence Project on hate crimes groups).  This group of volunteers has taken the most recent research on indicators of genocide and turned it into an early warning system.  They are currently issuing alerts on Kenya and Iran.

The Path Of Protest.  The Guardian has put together a fascinating interactive infographic (see screenshot below) that captures all of the major incidents for all of the uprisings and protests in the Middle East and puts them in a single timeline.  The pic does not do it justice.  You need to see it for yourself. (Hat tip to Kevin F.)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2011/mar/22/middle-east-protest-interactive-timeline
SearchUSA.gov.  I suppose you could use it to search for anything in any of the 50 million or so pages that Federal, state and local governments have made available but I used it to search for "intelligence analyst jobs".  I was both pleased and surprised that it not only brought up the usual federal listings but that it also brought up state and local intel analysis jobs that currently need filling.  Very useful for the law enforcement intel analyst.

Friday, March 25, 2011

Why Am I So Excited About A Game Called "Resistance: Road To Liberation"? (Kickstarter.com)

Three reasons, actually.

First, Resistance: Road To Liberation is a tabletop role playing game.  Yes, yes, like Dungeons and Dragons and Traveler and a whole bunch of other games.  

The difference here is that the game intends to be historically accurate and based, initially, on the various resistance movements of WWII.  

I have had a chance to speak with the designer, however, and he indicated that his intent is to move beyond WWII and to develop rules and scenarios appropriate to the current spate of revolutionary and resistance movements going on in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Role playing has a long history as an intelligence analysis technique.  Dick Heuer and Randy Pherson devote a chapter to it in their recent book, Structured Analytic Techniques For Intelligence Analysis, where they indicate that "role playing is particularly useful for understanding the outcomes of a conflict situation."  Research by Kesten Green at the Victoria University of Wellington  indicates that analysts who role play are over twice as accurate in their estimates as those who use unaided judgment. 

Analytic role playing is typically very unstructured and informal, however.  To get more realistic results, it would seem necessary to realistically constrain the "players".  Taken to its extreme (See, for example, The Marine Corps' Infantry Immersion Simulator which is, in some sense, just role playing on steroids),  it is highly effective but also extremely expensive and time consuming.

It seems to me then that a lightweight role playing game that captured many of the essential constraints without overly burdening the players in either time or money would be a useful tool for exploring resistance movements.  It might also be a lot more engaging than listening to another briefing or reading another report.

The second reason I am excited about Resistance is that it is using Kickstarter.com as a way to fund the game.  Kickstarter has only been around for a very short time but it has already become a major way to fund creative projects.  While most of the projects are small (Resistance is looking for only $4000 in funding to get up and running, for example), some Kickstarter projects have raised over a million dollars. 

On the other hand, Kickstarter also has a fairly brutal kill switch.  If a project doesn't meet the minimum funding level, Kickstarter cancels the donations (which don't get distributed until the minimum is met) and the creator gets nothing at all.

Microfinancing isn't new (Kiva is my personal favorite example) but microfinancing has been traditionally associated only with developing countries.  As an intelligence analyst, anytime I see a new financing model gaining acceptance outside its traditional sphere, I sit up and take notice.  

Don't get me wrong, both Kiva and Kickstarter are excellent organizations and completely above board.  However, any business model that can be used for good can also be used for ill (can anyone say "JihadStarter"?).  Donating $15 or $20 to a worthwhile project on Kiva or Kickstarter is not only a good thing, it is also a cheap education in how these kind of internet based microfinancing sites work.

And the third reason?  The designer is my son, Charlie Wheaton.

OK, OK.  I hear you.  In the interest of full disclosure, yes, I am damn proud of him.  How many of us have wanted to make a living doing something we are passionate about?  How many of us had a plan for turning that dream into reality at age 20?  Yep, "damn proud" about sums it up...

More than that, though, is my interest in what he is doing with the role playing game genre and its possibilities for intelligence analysis.  I have played Resistance and it is a good game that is very different than most role playing games and not just in terms of subject matter.  

He has deliberately kept the rule set streamlined to give the maximum leeway to the players.  He has created a system where groups advance in skills and abilities as well as individuals.  He intends to publish the final version on Kindle as well as in hardback.  The list goes on...

Charlie has been actively designing games for the last three years and, while he has not had any commercial success, he has learned a good bit about design by both studying it and actually getting his hands dirty.  If he can get the money and successfully implement all of his ideas (and, in particular the ones revolving around more modern conflicts), I think we may all have a new tool for analysis and training.

Charlie distributed free copies of the beta version of Resistance at the Origins Game Fair (one of the world's largest) two years ago.  He made a point of giving copies to soldiers that were there.  The feedback he received was universally positive but everyone indicated that it needed more work on the details -- more scenarios, more options for weaponry and tactics and more possibilities in terms of resistance movements.  With the money he gets from Kickstarter (assuming he makes his minimum), he hopes to do all that.

So, if you want to throw a few bucks his way, you can do that here.  He has some neat "premiums" for various levels of contribution but Kickstarter also gives you the option to just donate some money to the cause.  

Likewise, if you know anyone who might be interested don't hesitate to forward them this link or the link to the Kickstarter page.
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Tuesday, January 5, 2010

BAH Opens The Persia House, Provides Detailed Analysis On Events In Iran And Persian Gulf (Persia-house.com)

Booz Allen Hamiliton has just announced the opening of its online analytic resource, the Persia House.

The Persia House focuses on events in Iran, specifically, and the Persian Gulf in general. It covers a wide variety of topics including economics, security, domestic and international politics and nuclear proliferation among others. It even covers culture and humor in order to provide the widest possible context for its analytic offerings.

Much of the content of the site seems to center around Persia House's proprietary translations of recent articles. What differentiates these offerings from other translation services is the Persia House's often lengthy analysis of the articles and the context in which they were written. I particularly appreciated the analyst notes regarding the religious and political leanings of the various sources that the Persia House analysts use. Beyond the current news, the Persia House also provides more extensive analysis on a variety of topics. I do wish that it had a few more relevant graphics (maps, videos, etc.) but I suspect that those features will come with time.

In short, I am no Iranian expert but it looks like pretty good stuff.

BAH intends to make the service a subscription service at the end of the month but for now it is free to anyone interested. I know that they are also very interested in feedback so do not hesitate to leave a comment here or on their website.

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Friday, April 25, 2008

Middle East Dynamics, Challenges Facing Colombia And Robert Mueller On Intelligence Gathering (Fora.tv)

Fora has changed its format a bit, making it easier to watch full programs or just interesting snippets. The items below are taken from Fora's offerings over the last week.

Parag Khanna on Middle East Dynamics
Parag Khanna, author of The Second World, divides the Middle East into three distinct regions with unique political issues and highlights the rise of arabism and islamism, which permeates all three.

The Honorable William R. Brownfield on Colombia
Ambassador William R. Brownfield, United States Ambassador to Colombia outlines the current challenges facing Colombia and discusses the U.S.-Colombia relationship. Following his presentation, he answers questions from the audience.

FBI Director Robert Mueller on Intelligence Gathering
FBI Director Robert Mueller describes the subtleties of effective intelligence gathering, comparing it to panning for gold.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Effectively Deploying US Peacekeeping Forces, The Transformation Of Southeastern Europe And A New Strategy For Middle East Peace (Fora.tv)

A few more from Fora:

Effective Deployments of US Peacekeeping Forces

Stephen Hadley offers the examples of Liberia and Sierra Leone as effective deployments of U.S. peacekeeping forces.
Program and discussion: http://fora.tv/fora/showthread.php?t=2887

The Transformation of Southeastern Europe
The Transformation of Southeastern Europe: A Challenge for Smart Power with Dora Bakoyannis.
Program and discussion: http://fora.tv/fora/showthread.php?t=2871

A New Strategy for Middle East Peace
Daniel Levy, President of Prospects for Peace, explains that Israel’s main strategies for peace have been unsuccessful and achieving peace in the Middle East will require a comprehensive agreement between the entire region – including Iran.
Program and discussion: http://fora.tv/fora/showthread.php?t=2823

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Overview Map Of Situation In Middle East (Le Monde Diplomatique)

Le Monde Diplomatique reportedly has a very interesting and comprehensive map of conflicts and issues in the Middle East, Afghanistan and East Africa (posted on Intellibriefs).