North Caucasus Insurgency -- Strategic Estimate (Original Research)

Last year one of my strategic intelligence teams took a look at the insurgency in the north Caucasus. You can see their final product on the Mercyhurst Caucasus Insurgency Analysis Team wiki. Their analysis was only designed to look out to the Russian presidential election but having reviewed some of the findings, methods and final products once again, I think it is worth sharing, particularly given the recent crisis in Georgia.

The team did not look directly at Georgian/Russian relations but there is still some interesting grist for the mill here. They have built a very good link chart of the insurgency leadership (you can download the PowerPoint here or see the full report with videos here) and the resources page has a wide variety of mapping and other resources listed. The violence database contains an ethnographic map of the region along with a brilliant use of the online mapping service CommunityWalk to map out all of the incidents prior to November, 2007 (when they completed the project). The final estimates, as mentioned, are out of date, but may include some items of interest, particularly relating to perceived Russian capabilities in November 2007. As with all of the wiki-based products (referenced below), there is much to be gained by looking at the methods and process used as well.

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