North Caucasus Insurgency -- Strategic Estimate (Original Research)

Last year one of my strategic intelligence teams took a look at the insurgency in the north Caucasus. You can see their final product on the Mercyhurst Caucasus Insurgency Analysis Team wiki. Their analysis was only designed to look out to the Russian presidential election but having reviewed some of the findings, methods and final products once again, I think it is worth sharing, particularly given the recent crisis in Georgia.

The team did not look directly at Georgian/Russian relations but there is still some interesting grist for the mill here. They have built a very good link chart of the insurgency leadership (you can download the PowerPoint here or see the full report with videos here) and the resources page has a wide variety of mapping and other resources listed. The violence database contains an ethnographic map of the region along with a brilliant use of the online mapping service CommunityWalk to map out all of the incidents prior to November, 2007 (when they completed the project). The final estimates, as mentioned, are out of date, but may include some items of interest, particularly relating to perceived Russian capabilities in November 2007. As with all of the wiki-based products (referenced below), there is much to be gained by looking at the methods and process used as well.

Related Posts:
Russia And Georgia Analysis: Its All About Timing
Security Sector Reform In Sub-Saharan Africa
Jihadist Use Of YouTube, SecondLife
Non-State Actors In Sub-Saharan Africa

Russia And Georgia Analysis: It’s All About Timing (19th Hole)

A new blog, The 19th Hole, by a Mercyhurst graduate, Robert Williams, shares some interesting insights into the current crisis in Georgia. Robert studied the Caucasus (along with the rest of the team) fairly extensively during a strategic intel project last year. As a result, he speaks from a position of some background and knowledge. While I am not an expert, his logic makes sense and it seems to echo with recent articles elsewhere.

Robert is a Ransome Scholar and will be studying for his masters at St Andrews (hence the name of the blog, though I think the profs there might have different ideas for his free time...). His intent as I understand it is "to talk about more 'big picture” topics'." Definitely a blog worth watching!