North Caucasus Insurgency -- Strategic Estimate (Original Research)

Last year one of my strategic intelligence teams took a look at the insurgency in the north Caucasus. You can see their final product on the Mercyhurst Caucasus Insurgency Analysis Team wiki. Their analysis was only designed to look out to the Russian presidential election but having reviewed some of the findings, methods and final products once again, I think it is worth sharing, particularly given the recent crisis in Georgia.

The team did not look directly at Georgian/Russian relations but there is still some interesting grist for the mill here. They have built a very good link chart of the insurgency leadership (you can download the PowerPoint here or see the full report with videos here) and the resources page has a wide variety of mapping and other resources listed. The violence database contains an ethnographic map of the region along with a brilliant use of the online mapping service CommunityWalk to map out all of the incidents prior to November, 2007 (when they completed the project). The final estimates, as mentioned, are out of date, but may include some items of interest, particularly relating to perceived Russian capabilities in November 2007. As with all of the wiki-based products (referenced below), there is much to be gained by looking at the methods and process used as well.

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How To Pick A Lock With A "Bump Key" And 9 Other Interesting Or Useful How-to Videos (Lifehacker)

Close down The Farm! You can get all the black bag training you need on YouTube! Lifehacker published a list of 10 useful how-to videos recently. Some of them I have tried (like opening a bottle with a piece of paper) and could not get to work. Others I have tried and learned (like folding a t-shirt in 2 moves -- very cool!) but I didn't expect that learning how to make a bump key would make the top ten. Considered a "burglary tool" in many states, it is probably best to just watch the video...

You can see all of Lifehacker's top ten here but I have included one of my own favorite how-to videos below, "How to tie your shoes really fast":

Free Analyst's Style Manual! (MCIIS Press)

Bill Welch has just finished packaging the Style Manual for use in our writing, presentation and communications classes here at Mercyhurst. Bill, an editor and writer with the Erie Time-News for 29 years before he came to us, integrated the practices from a number of other style guides (including ones from DIA and CIA) as well as his own considerable experience to put together a concise manual focused on the essentials of style for the intel analyst engaged in national security, business or law enforcement work.

Partly because he recognized he was building on the shoulders of giants and partly because we are really trying to keep textbook prices down, we decided to make a PDF version of the manual available for free and licensed under Creative Commons so that educators, practitioners and students can use it in any way they need to.

If you would rather have a print version of the manual, we have cut a deal with a local printer and the Mercyhurst College Bookstore to get you one. All profits from the hardcopy sales will go to support graduate student research here at Mercyhurst (Note: Every year our grad students wind up coming out of pocket for various pieces of software or other unique tools to do their theses. Rachel Kesselman, for example, wound up spending 200+ dollars on some content analysis software in order to analyze 60 years of NIEs. While we don't expect this little manual to be a best seller, we would like to be able to defray or eliminate those costs and Bill has kindly donated whatever profits might come from the sale of the hardcopy versions to the graduate research fund).

Russia And Georgia Analysis: It’s All About Timing (19th Hole)

A new blog, The 19th Hole, by a Mercyhurst graduate, Robert Williams, shares some interesting insights into the current crisis in Georgia. Robert studied the Caucasus (along with the rest of the team) fairly extensively during a strategic intel project last year. As a result, he speaks from a position of some background and knowledge. While I am not an expert, his logic makes sense and it seems to echo with recent articles elsewhere.

Robert is a Ransome Scholar and will be studying for his masters at St Andrews (hence the name of the blog, though I think the profs there might have different ideas for his free time...). His intent as I understand it is "to talk about more 'big picture” topics'." Definitely a blog worth watching!

Chinese Repression Of The Uighurs (ISN)

ISN has an interesting brief on China's continued repression of the Muslim Uighur population (in light pink on the map below) in western China under the mantle of counter-terrorism activity. Written by Diane Chido, an independent writer and analyst (and graduate of Mercyhurst!), it covers the basics and provides interesting background to the recent spate of incidents in Xinjiang Province.

Click for a larger version.

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