2nd Annual Mercyhurst Report On Hiring Prospects For Entry Level Intelligence Analysts In The National Security Community Is Out! (And It Is Not Pretty...)

http://www.iismu.org/white-papers

Sequester, draw-down, RIF, early retirement - these are the buzzwords that are dominating the hiring discussions in the US government these days.  While last year was marginal, the next 12 months are shaping up to be very tough ones for entry-level intelligence analysts trying to break into the US national security intelligence community. 

Greg Marchwinski, one of our current crop of graduate student all-stars, prepared this year's report which, like last year's report, is based on collected survey data, interviews and emails from knowledgeable individuals, and relevant secondary sources. 

Here is what Greg has to say about the prospects for the next 12 months (from the executive summary):

"Due to uncertainty over federal government deficit reduction initiatives and a decreasing military presence globally, it is highly likely that overall hiring of entry-level intelligence analysts within the US Intelligence Community (IC) will decrease significantly from recent levels until the next budget cycle begins in October, 2013. The only exception to this general trend is cyber-related positions which are likely to see a moderate increase despite budget cuts. Additionally, it is highly likely that sequestration throughout the IC will significantly limit hiring entry-level intelligence analysts in all analytic functions until defense funding negotiations are resolved."

Click on this link to download the full report.

Look for our reports on entry-level intel analyst hiring in law enforcement and in business next month.

Powerful Visual Analytics Tool, Jigsaw, Now Available Free For Download!

John Stasko, and the programming geniuses at Georgia Tech, have finally released their powerful and recently updated visual analysis software, Jigsaw, into the wild.

For those of you who just want the software now, click here to go to John's newly updated website.

It has been a while since I have looked at Jigsaw.  I examined it first back in 2007 (here and here) and we last used it in a project in 2009 (here).  Back then, it was an extremely good product for a fairly narrowly focused type of analytic work.

Today, though, it appears to be a much easier to use and more general purpose type of analytic software.  I was especially blown away by the use cases demonstrated in the video below.  The video is a little long but worth it if you don't know a lot about the state of the art in visual analytics.

I am also particularly impressed with the growing list of publications assessing the software's validity and the video tutorials to help new users get started.

If you are interested in new ideas and new tools for visualizing the results of your analysis -- particularly free ones -- I strongly recommend you check Jigsaw out!

Just Launched My First Game, Widget, On Kickstarter; ENTINT Questions Generated At A Staggering Pace... (ENTINT)

You might notice something different about the site.  Over to the right you will see a small box that contains details on my first game, Widget.  I launched this game last night on Kickstarter.com and the text box you see now will stay up there for the next thirty days or so (clicking on the box will take you to the Widget website in all its glory).

Kickstarter gives you anywhere from 30-90 days to make your target (in my case $4000.  I set my time limit for 30 days -- which Kickstarter recommends).  If you make it, you get the money.  If you don't, you get nothing (and all of your backers do not get charged anything).  Basically, failing costs your backers nothing and costs you only your ego...

So far the launch has generated as many intelligence questions as it has answered.  More next week!

(PS.  On a personal note, I genuinely appreciate the readers of this blog who have backed this game already on Kickstarter.  I have a long way to go yet, but it is both encouraging and humbling to be the recipient of so much good will.  While I also understand that this game might not be perfect for many of the rest of you, I do appreciate those of you who have taken the time to post to Facebook, tweet about it, or otherwise share it with your friends and family.  I am pretty certain that there is someone in everyone's social network who will enjoy this game.  My challenge is to the get word out to them and your help has been invaluable!  Thanks! Kris)

Game-based Learning And Intelligence: A Summary And Re-boot

While I haven't written much about it recently (hence the reason for this re-boot), for the past four years (!), I have been looking at the value of game-based learning techniques in the intelligence classroom.  While I am still a strong advocate of game-based learning approaches for intelligence professionals generally (and intelligence analysts in particular), my outlook, having actually used these techniques in the classroom, is a bit more nuanced and less naive than it was a few years ago. 

I started by looking at several years worth of data in a series of posts I called Teaching Strategic Intelligence Through Games.  Published in 2010, this is still one of the most popular series of posts I have ever done.  

My goal then was to improve the ability of analysts to see deep patterns in disparate and largely qualitative data sets relevant to problems of strategic importance.  My primary approach to this goal was to use what I think is the most powerful aspect of games - the implicit learning that accompanies them - to improve student performance on real-world problems asked by real-world decisionmakers. 

Nothing that has happened over the last two years suggests that the initial conclusions were wrong.  I am firmly committed to a game-based learning pedagogy in teaching strategic intelligence analysts because it works.  Students simply are able to do strategic intelligence much better, much faster, when I combine traditional concepts in strategic intelligence with appropriate games. 

My most recent round of strategic projects (completed in February) merely reinforced my beliefs.  My students performed so far above their nominal level of expertise that it makes my nose bleed.  The questions they were asked were some of the most difficult I have ever encountered and yet, in every case, a collaborative nimbleness of mind emerged in each team such that they were able to not only effectively answer the challenging questions posed to them by real-world senior decisionmakers but also push beyond the limits of the requirement and exceed expectations in useful and inventive ways.  

Most of their success is attributable to their hard work and dedication but I have always been fortunate enough to have hard working and dedicated students.  I remember the old days, however, when I often had good and sometimes great projects.  Now I can consistently anticipate great and oftentimes extraordinary projects on increasingly difficult questions. 

Unfortunately, students appear to be less "happy" with this game-based approach than with a more traditional lecture/discussion model and this, too, has persisted throughout the years.  Don't get me wrong; they don't hate it (at least not all of them) but, like elite athletes engaged in high intensity interval training, my students seemingly can both acknowledge the value of the exercises while becoming cognitively exhausted at the pace and difficulty of them.

It would have been easy to ignore this modest but noticeable decrease in student satisfaction.  After all, the learning outcomes were significantly better.  While this is the most important thing, of course, it is not the only thing and I began to explore reasons why student satisfaction with a game-based approach were lower than with a traditional lecture/discussion model.  It appeared to me to be counter-intuitive and, frankly, to fly in the face of much of the game-based learning literature.

This led to my second series of posts on the topic which I have called The 5 Myths of Game-based Learning:  A Report From The Classroom.  It is too long to summarize but the parts I have completed are listed below:

Part 1:  Introduction
Part 2:  Myth #1:  Game-based Learning Is New 
Part 3:  Myth #2:  Games Work Because They Capture Attention 
Part 4:  Myth #3:  I Need A Game That Teaches... 
Part 5:  Myth #3A:  I Want To Make A Game That Teaches...

I have not finished this series but intend to do so over the next several weeks.

Recently, I have been distracted with my third major excursion into game-based learning and intelligence - the starting of my own games company.  This effort has been all-consuming and promises to get more so with the launch of my first game, Widget, tomorrow.  

The goal for now is to explore the kind of intelligence that can explore entrepreneurship (ENTINT as I call it).  Hopefully, I will soon be launching some games designed to take advantage of what I have learned about game-based learning and apply it to specific intelligence concepts such that I can better teach intelligence with games rather than merely through them.

What Is Crowdfunding And Why Is It Important To Intelligence? (ENTINT)

http://widget.launchrock.com/

Six more days...

If all goes well, in six days, I intend to launch my first game, Widget, on Kickstarter  (if you are interested in the game itself, you can get more info by clicking on this link).  Once launched, I will have 30 days to get "funded" by various "backers".  If I fail to reach my pre-designated goal, I get nothing at all.

That's how crowdfunding works.

Well, at least, that is how Kickstarter works.  Kickstarter is the oldest and most popular crowdfunding platform currently available.  For those of you unfamiliar with these platforms, you probably should be.  This is not just for entrepreneurs or people interested in entrepreneurial intelligence, either.  There are implications here for intelligence professionals at all levels of business ... and law enforcement and national security, too.  

Let me explain.  Kickstarter is by no means the only crowdfunding site these days.  IndieGoGo and RocketHub are two popular alternatives, but there are a growing number of these sites.  The pace of this growth is likely to increase in 2013 as new laws are set to come into effect that will allow contributors to take small equity interests in start-ups (the current crowdfunding model centers on what typically amounts to pre-sales of a product or service).  Forbes expects revenues generated by crowdfunding sites to double, from 3 to 6 billion USD, in 2013.  Increasingly, this is the way everything from music to games to books to electronics will be funded at start-up.     

Savvy intelligence professionals in the business world should be watching these sites for potential competitors that might emerge from successfully funded projects.  Likewise, given the underfunded nature of most start-ups, it makes equally good sense to see successful crowdfunded projects as a no-cost extension of your own R & D programs - buying out small companies with proven products may well be less expensive than developing them in-house.   Finally, understanding crowdfunding is going to be an increasingly essential element of providing entrepreneurs any meaningful intelligence support.

Law enforcement intelligence professionals should also be taking note.  While there is little evidence of criminal activity in crowdfunding activities to date, with an increase in money, crime is virtually certain to follow.  Fraud of all kinds, money laundering, illegal or unsafe products are all activities which the reputable sites work very hard to avoid but, with the expected growth, criminals will inevitably carve out new niches in the market.

While national security intelligence professionals might not be interested in some artist's new comic book, many of these sites either specialize in or actively promote innovative hi-tech product development and design.  In fact, some academics are even turning to crowdfunding sites to fund their research.  Everything from geo-mapping to verification of information on the internet to pens that can draw in 3D have been funded by crowdfunding.

Crowdfunding is both an innovative and disruptive practice that is set to become much more important in the coming years.  In my opinion, it is worth staying ahead of this particular curve.